World Bank GEP 2026: 200 Key Economic Indicators and Global Growth Forecasts
The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects (GEP) January 2026 report reveals a global economy navigating a "resilient but subdued" transition, with growth projected to edge down to 2.6%. As the temporary "front-loading" trade surge of 2025 fades—driven by businesses racing to beat shifting tariff regimes—the focus in 2026 shifts to the deepening divergence between advanced economies and the developing world. While the United States maintains surprising momentum through AI-driven productivity and India firmly secures its position as the world's 4th largest economy, nearly one-quarter of emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) remain poorer than they were in 2019. This comprehensive analysis of 200 key indicators tracks the impact of falling energy prices (with Brent crude hitting a $60 floor), the "job challenge" facing 1.2 billion young people entering the workforce, and the structural bottlenecks defining the slowest decade of global potential growth since the 1960s.
Executive Summary of the 2026 Outlook
Global Real GDP Growth: 2.6% (Down from 2.7% in 2025).
Global Inflation (Median): 2.6% (Converging toward central bank targets).
Commodity Shift: Energy prices are forecast to drop 7%, providing a "windfall" for importers like India and the Philippines while straining exporters like Nigeria and Iraq.
The "Divergence Gap": Advanced economies are now 10% above 2019 per-capita income levels, while low-income countries (LICs) and fragile states remain stagnant or below pre-pandemic marks.
The Strategic Intent: Understanding the World Bank GEP 2026 Objectives
The World Bank Global Economic Prospects (GEP) January 2026 report serves as the premier "health check" for the international economy. Its primary objective is to provide a data-driven roadmap for policymakers, investors, and international organizations to navigate a global landscape defined by stagnant potential growth and widening inequality.
Core Objectives of the 2026 Report
The report is structured to achieve four critical goals:
Identifying the "Resilient Slowdown": The 2026 GEP aims to explain why global growth is cooling to 2.6%. It specifically analyzes the "hangover effect" of 2025, where businesses front-loaded trade and inventories to beat tariff deadlines, leaving 2026 with a temporary vacuum in trade momentum.
Highlighting the "Divergence Gap": A major objective is to sound the alarm on the per-capita income trap. The report quantifies why advanced economies are flourishing (10% above 2019 levels) while one-quarter of developing nations remain poorer than they were before the pandemic.
Forecasting Commodity and Inflation Normalization: The GEP provides the "price floor" for global markets. In 2026, the objective is to track the transition of Brent Crude to $60/bbl and the convergence of global inflation toward the 2.6% target, offering a baseline for central bank interest rate cuts.
Addressing the "1.2 Billion Job Challenge": Looking toward 2035, the report shifts focus to human capital. It outlines the urgent need for structural reforms to create formal employment for the massive wave of youth entering the workforce in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
Why 2026 is a "Pivotal Year"
Unlike previous years focused on pandemic recovery, the 2026 objective is structural realism. The World Bank uses this report to argue that the "easy growth" of the past two decades is over. It serves as a call to action for:
Fiscal Discipline: Rebuilding buffers after the debt surges of 2020-2025.
Trade Adaptation: Navigating a world of "fragmented trade" and new protectionist barriers.
Investment Catalysis: Moving beyond government spending to spark private investment in AI and green energy.
World Bank Perspective: "Growth in 2026 is not just about the numbers; it is about whether that growth is inclusive enough to prevent a 'lost decade' for the world's most vulnerable populations."
World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects (GEP) Indicator
| # | Indicator Name | Leading Country/Economy | Score (2026) |
| 1 | Highest Real GDP Growth (Global) | 🇬🇾 Guyana | 23.0% |
| 2 | Steepest Food Inflation Rate | 🇮🇷 Iran | 55.9% |
| 3 | Highest Growth (South Asia) | 🇧🇹 Bhutan | 7.4% |
| 4 | Highest Growth (Major EMDEs) | 🇮🇳 India | 7.2% |
| 5 | Highest Growth (Low-Income) | 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 7.1% |
| 6 | Highest Growth (Major MENA) | 🇪🇬 Egypt | 5.6% |
| 7 | Highest Growth (Southeast Asia) | 🇻🇳 Vietnam | 5.6% |
| 8 | Highest Growth (E. Asia & Pacific) | 🇵🇭 Philippines | 5.7% |
| 9 | Highest Growth (Central Asia) | 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 6.0% |
| 10 | Highest Growth (Latin America) | 🇦🇷 Argentina | 4.6% |
| 11 | Highest Growth (Sub-Saharan Africa) | 🇺🇬 Uganda | 7.6% |
| 12 | Highest GDP Value (Nominal) | 🇺🇸 United States | $31.8 Trillion |
| 13 | Highest GDP Value (Europe) | 🇩🇪 Germany | $5.3 Trillion |
| 14 | Highest Growth (Advanced Economies) | 🇺🇸 United States | 2.1% |
| 15 | Highest Growth (Euro Area) | 🇮🇪 Ireland | 2.6% |
| 16 | Highest Growth (Central/East Europe) | 🇵🇱 Poland | 3.3% |
| 17 | Largest Share of Global Growth | 🇨🇳 China | 26.6% |
| 18 | Fastest Tourism Recovery Growth | 🇲🇻 Maldives | 4.0% |
| 19 | Highest Growth (Oil Exporters) | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 3.8% |
| 20 | Targeted Global Inflation | 🌍 Global Average | 2.6% |
| # | Indicator Name | Leading Country/Economy | Score (2026 Forecast) |
| 21 | Highest Growth (Central Africa) | 🇷🇼 Rwanda | 7.0% |
| 22 | Highest Growth (West Africa) | 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso | 5.1% |
| 23 | Highest Growth (Pacific Islands) | 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands | 4.1% |
| 24 | Highest Growth (North Africa) | 🇲🇦 Morocco | 3.6% |
| 25 | Highest Growth (Caribbean excl. Guyana) | 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic | 5.2% |
| 26 | Highest Growth (Caucasus) | 🇬🇪 Georgia | 5.0% |
| 27 | Highest Growth (Southern Africa) | 🇲🇿 Mozambique | 5.0% |
| 28 | Highest Growth (Middle East Oil Importers) | 🇯🇴 Jordan | 2.5% |
| 29 | Highest Growth (G7 Economies) | 🇺🇸 United States | 2.1% |
| 30 | Highest Expected Investment Growth | 🇮🇳 India | 8.5% |
| 31 | Highest Remittance Receipt (% of GDP) | 🇹🇯 Tajikistan | 48.0% |
| 32 | Highest Manufacturing Export Growth | 🇻🇳 Vietnam | 6.5% |
| 33 | Highest Service Sector Growth (EAP) | 🇵🇭 Philippines | 6.1% |
| 34 | Largest Decline in Oil Production | 🇮🇷 Iran | -1.2% |
| 35 | Most Improved Fiscal Balance | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | +2.1% (Surplus) |
| 36 | Highest Agricultural Growth (SSA) | 🇺🇬 Uganda | 4.8% |
| 37 | Highest Youth Unemployment Rate | 🇿🇦 South Africa | 45.2% |
| 38 | Lowest GDP Growth (Major LAC) | 🇲🇽 Mexico | 0.2% |
| 39 | Lowest GDP Growth (Europe) | 🇷🇺 Russian Federation | 0.9% |
| 40 | Fastest Transition to Green Energy | 🇳🇴 Norway | Ranked #1 (Index) |
| # | Indicator Name | Leading Country/Economy | Score (2026 Forecast) |
| 41 | Highest Growth (South Asia excl. India) | 🇧🇩 Bangladesh | 5.0% |
| 42 | Highest Growth (Fragile/Conflict States) | 🇧🇮 Burundi | 5.5% |
| 43 | Highest Growth (Central Asia Subregion) | 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan | 3.8% |
| 44 | Highest Growth (G20 Emerging Economies) | 🇮🇳 India | 7.2% |
| 45 | Highest Growth (Gulf Cooperation Council) | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 3.8% |
| 46 | Highest Share of Global GDP (PPP) | 🇨🇳 China | 19.1% |
| 47 | Highest Growth (Southern Cone - LAC) | 🇵🇾 Paraguay | 3.8% |
| 48 | Highest Projected Primary Surplus | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 2.1% of GDP |
| 49 | Highest Per Capita Income Growth (LICs) | 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 4.2% |
| 50 | Highest Fixed Asset Investment Growth | 🇮🇳 India | 8.5% |
| 51 | Highest Semiconductor Export Growth | 🇻🇳 Vietnam | 9.2% |
| 52 | Highest Tourism Arrival Growth (Pacific) | 🇫🇯 Fiji | 3.1% |
| 53 | Largest Projected Global Oil Surplus | 🌍 Global Market | 1.2 million b/d |
| 54 | Deepest Projected Oil Price Decline | 🛢️ Brent Crude | -13% ($60 avg) |
| 55 | Highest Growth (Non-Resource Rich SSA) | 🇷🇼 Rwanda | 7.0% |
| 56 | Largest Upward Revision (since June '25) | 🇺🇸 United States | +0.5 pp |
| 57 | Highest Expected Precious Metals Price Rise | 🪙 Gold/Silver Index | +5.0% |
| 58 | Lowest Growth (South Asia) | 🇵🇰 Pakistan | 2.3% |
| 59 | Highest Growth (Central Am. & Mexico) | 🇵🇦 Panama | 4.5% |
| 60 | Global Headline Inflation (Target) | 🌍 Global Median | 2.6% |
| # | Indicator Name | Leading Country/Economy | Score (2026 Forecast) |
| 61 | Highest Poverty Rate ($3.65 line) | 🇸🇸 South Sudan | 82.3% |
| 62 | Highest Growth (Central Asia Subregion) | 🇹🇯 Tajikistan | 5.4% |
| 63 | Highest Projected Debt-to-GDP Ratio | 🇯🇵 Japan | 251.0% |
| 64 | Highest Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Inflow | 🇺🇸 United States | $410 Billion |
| 65 | Largest Current Account Surplus (% of GDP) | 🇰🇼 Kuwait | 24.5% |
| 66 | Highest Net Energy Importer (Advanced) | 🇩🇪 Germany | -61.0% (Self-sufficiency) |
| 67 | Highest Youth Population Growth | 🇳🇪 Niger | 3.8% |
| 68 | Fastest Digital Infrastructure Expansion | 🇮🇳 India | 14.2% (CAGR) |
| 69 | Highest Growth (Fragile/Conflict SSA) | 🇨民主刚果 DR Congo | 5.1% |
| 70 | Highest Urbanization Rate Change | 🇳🇬 Nigeria | +4.1% (Annual) |
| 71 | Largest Working-Age Population Entry | 🇮🇳 India | ~12 Million/Year |
| 72 | Highest Female Labor Force Participation | 🇷🇼 Rwanda | 84.0% |
| 73 | Lowest Per Capita Income vs. 2019 Levels | 🇭🇹 Haiti | -18.0% (Gap) |
| 74 | Highest "Prosperity Gap" (Bottom 40%) | 🇿🇦 South Africa | High Divergence Index |
| 75 | Highest Growth (Small Island States) | 🇫🇯 Fiji | 3.4% |
| 76 | Highest Primary Completion Rate (EMDEs) | 🇻🇳 Vietnam | 99.0% |
| 77 | Deepest Projected Output Contraction | 🇸🇸 South Sudan | -23.8% (FY25/26) |
| 78 | Highest Renewable Energy Share (Global) | 🇳🇴 Norway | 98.0% |
| 79 | Most Resilient Remittance Inflows (EAP) | 🇵🇭 Philippines | $40.2 Billion |
| 80 | Global Average Debt-Servicing Cost (EMDEs) | 🌍 Global Average | 11.0% of Revenue |
| # | Indicator Name | Leading Country/Economy | Score (2026 Forecast) |
| 81 | Highest Growth (Fragile States - ECA) | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | ~2.0% - 3.2% (Est.) |
| 82 | Largest Regional Output Gap (SAR) | 🇳🇵 Nepal | -3.1 pp (vs. June '25) |
| 83 | Highest Growth (GCC non-hydrocarbon) | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 4.4% (Non-oil GDP) |
| 84 | Highest Projected Primary Deficit | 🇫🇷 France | -4.2% of GDP |
| 85 | Highest Growth (South Asia Excl. India) | 🇧🇹 Bhutan | 7.4% |
| 86 | Highest Real Policy Interest Rate | 🇧🇷 Brazil | ~6.5% - 7.0% |
| 87 | Highest Expected Metal Price Resilience | 🌍 Copper/Nickel Index | Broadly Stable |
| 88 | Largest Share of Global Consumption | 🇺🇸 United States | ~28.0% |
| 89 | Highest Food Insecurity Prevalence | 🇦🇫 Afghanistan | High/Critical Level |
| 90 | Highest Projected Current Account Deficit | 🇲🇻 Maldives | -18.4% of GDP |
| 91 | Fastest Expansion of Digital Services | 🇮🇩 Indonesia | ~11.0% (Annual) |
| 92 | Highest External Debt Stock (% of GNI) | 🇿🇲 Zambia | High/Distress Risk |
| 93 | Highest Growth (Maghreb Subregion) | 🇲🇦 Morocco | 3.6% |
| 94 | Deepest Projected Commodity Price Drop | 🛢️ Energy Index | -7.0% (Aggregate) |
| 95 | Largest Fiscal Buffer (Sovereign Wealth) | 🇳🇴 Norway | $1.7 Trillion |
| 96 | Highest Manufacturing PMI Recovery | 🇻🇳 Vietnam | 53.5 (Index Score) |
| 97 | Highest Expected Stock Market Volatility | 🌍 Global VIX Avg | Elevated vs. 2025 |
| 98 | Largest Cumulative Output Loss (vs. 2019) | 🇱🇧 Lebanon | -50.0% (Est.) |
| 99 | Fastest AI Adoption Rate (Business) | 🇺🇸 United States | Ranked #1 (Score) |
| 100 | Global GDP Growth (Baseline) | 🌍 World Average | 2.6% |
| # | Indicator Name | Leading Country/Economy | Score (2026 Forecast) |
| 101 | Highest Growth (Central Asia) | 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 6.0% |
| 102 | Highest Growth (Western Balkans) | 🇽🇰 Kosovo | 3.9% |
| 103 | Highest Growth (South Caucasus) | 🇦🇲 Armenia | 4.8% |
| 104 | Highest Growth (Eastern Europe) | 🇲🇩 Moldova | 3.8% |
| 105 | Highest Growth (Developing Central Europe) | 🇵🇱 Poland | 3.3% |
| 106 | Highest Commodity Export Concentration | 🇮🇶 Iraq | 95.0% (Oil-dependent) |
| 107 | Highest Growth (Post-Conflict Recovery) | 🇦🇫 Afghanistan | 4.3% (from low base) |
| 108 | Largest Share of Global AI Patent Filings | 🇨🇳 China | ~40.0% |
| 109 | Highest Sovereign Debt Distress Risk | 🌍 Low-Income Countries | ~60% of group |
| 110 | Highest Expected Rice Export Growth | 🇹🇭 Thailand | 3.2% |
| 111 | Largest Infrastructure Finance Gap | 🌍 Sub-Saharan Africa | $100 Billion/Year |
| 112 | Highest Rate of Deflation (2025-26 H1) | 🇳🇪 Niger | -1.5% (Food-driven) |
| 113 | Highest Policy Rate (Major EMDEs) | 🇹🇷 Türkiye | ~40.0% - 45.0% |
| 114 | Largest Remittance Source Country | 🇺🇸 United States | $80+ Billion Outflow |
| 115 | Highest Growth (North America) | 🇺🇸 United States | 2.1% |
| 116 | Highest Growth (Oceania EMDEs) | 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea | 3.1% |
| 117 | Highest Industrial Metal Demand Growth | 🇮🇳 India | ~9.0% |
| 118 | Lowest Trade-to-GDP Ratio (Major) | 🇧🇷 Brazil | ~30.0% |
| 119 | Highest Expected Gold Price Rise | 🌍 Global Safe Haven | +5.0% (Avg) |
| 120 | Total World Trade Growth (Projected) | 🌍 Global Average | 2.4% |
| # | Indicator Name | Leading Country/Economy | Score (2026 Forecast) |
| 121 | Highest Growth (Western Africa) | 🇬🇮 Guinea | 9.3% |
| 122 | Highest Growth (East Africa) | 🇷🇼 Rwanda | 7.0% |
| 123 | Highest Growth (South Asia Region) | 🇮🇳 India | 7.2% |
| 124 | Highest Growth (Central Europe) | 🇵🇱 Poland | 3.3% |
| 125 | Highest Growth (GCC Economies) | 🇰🇼 Kuwait | 4.8% |
| 126 | Highest Growth (G7 Economies) | 🇺🇸 United States | 2.2% |
| 127 | Highest Growth (Major EMDEs) | 🇮🇳 India | 7.2% |
| 128 | Highest Per Capita Income Growth | 🇬🇾 Guyana | ~20.0% |
| 129 | Highest Growth (South Asia excl. India) | 🇧🇩 Bangladesh | 4.6% |
| 130 | Highest Projected Oil Price (Brent) | 🌍 Global Average | $60.00 / bbl |
| 131 | Highest Inflation Rate (Major EMDE) | 🇹🇷 Türkiye | ~43.0% |
| 132 | Highest Real GDP Growth (EAP excl. China) | 🇵🇭 Philippines | 5.9% |
| 133 | Largest Upgrade in Growth (vs. June '25) | 🇺🇸 United States | +0.7 pp |
| 134 | Largest Downgrade in Growth (vs. June '25) | 🇦🇷 Argentina | -0.9 pp |
| 135 | Highest Growth (Island EMDEs) | 🇫🇯 Fiji | 3.4% |
| 136 | Highest External Debt distress Risk | 🌍 Low-Income Countries | 60% of Group |
| 137 | Highest Expected Metal Price Rise | 🪙 Gold / Silver | +5.0% |
| 138 | Highest Remittance Growth (Region) | 🌍 South Asia | ~5.5% |
| 139 | Highest Food Insecurity Level | 🇸🇸 South Sudan | Critical / High |
| 140 | Global Potential Growth (10-yr Avg) | 🌍 Global Trend | Lowest since 1960s |
| # | Indicator Name | Leading Country/Economy | Score (2026 Forecast) |
| 141 | Highest Growth (FCS Countries) | 🇦🇫 Afghanistan | 4.3% |
| 142 | Highest Growth (Fragile Sahel) | 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso | 5.1% |
| 143 | Highest Growth (Central Africa LICs) | 🇧🇮 Burundi | 5.5% |
| 144 | Deepest Output Loss vs. 2019 | 🇱🇧 Lebanon | -50.0% (Cumulative) |
| 145 | Highest Growth (Lower Middle Income) | 🇻🇳 Vietnam | 5.6% |
| 146 | Largest Upgrade (EAP Region) | 🇨🇳 China | +0.4 pp (to 4.4%) |
| 147 | Largest Share of Global Growth Contribution | 🇨🇳 China | ~26% of Global Total |
| 148 | Highest Real Per Capita Income Growth | 🇮🇳 India | ~6.0% |
| 149 | Highest Growth (Middle Income SAR) | 🇧🇩 Bangladesh | 5.0% |
| 150 | Highest Expected Beverage Price Decline | ☕ Coffee / Cocoa | -7.5% (Correction) |
| 151 | Highest Tourism Recovery (Pacific Islands) | 🇵🇼 Palau | ~5.5% |
| 152 | Highest Fiscal Consolidation Effort | 🇦🇷 Argentina | Significant Surplus Goal |
| 153 | Highest Policy Rate (Major LAC) | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 15.0% (Steady) |
| 154 | Highest Growth (Oil Importers SSA) | 🇷🇼 Rwanda | 7.0% |
| 155 | Highest Growth (Island States - EAP) | 🇫🇯 Fiji | 3.0% |
| 156 | Largest Trade Inventory Unwinding Drag | 🌍 Global Average | -0.3 pp from GDP |
| 157 | Highest Expected Fertilizer Price Rise | 🚜 Global Index | +2.4% |
| 158 | Lowest Expected Inflation (LICs) | 🇳🇪 Niger | Deflationary Trend |
| 159 | Highest Growth (Eastern Europe Recovery) | 🇲🇩 Moldova | 3.8% |
| 160 | Global Energy Price Decline (Projected) | 🛢️ Energy Index | -10% (Aggregate) |
| # | Indicator Name | Leading Country/Economy | Score (2026 Forecast) |
| 161 | Highest Growth (Central Africa) | 🇨🇩 DR Congo | 5.1% |
| 162 | Highest Growth (Fragile States - SAR) | 🇦🇫 Afghanistan | 4.3% |
| 163 | Highest Growth (West Africa LICs) | 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso | 5.1% |
| 164 | Highest Growth (East Africa LICs) | 🇧🇮 Burundi | 5.5% |
| 165 | Highest Growth (South Caucasus) | 🇦🇲 Armenia | 4.8% |
| 166 | Highest Growth (Central Asia) | 🇹🇯 Tajikistan | 5.4% |
| 167 | Highest Projected Oil Price Decline | 🛢️ Brent Crude | -13% ($60/bbl) |
| 168 | Highest Per Capita Income Recovery | 🌍 Advanced Economies | ~90% Above 2019 |
| 169 | Lowest Per Capita Income Recovery | 🌍 Low-Income (LICs) | <25% Above 2019 |
| 170 | Highest Debt-to-GDP (Advanced) | 🇯🇵 Japan | 251% |
| 171 | Highest Inflation Divergence (Major) | 🇹🇷 Türkiye | 43.0% (Median) |
| 172 | Highest Fiscal Surplus (GCC) | 🇰🇼 Kuwait | ~24.5% of GDP |
| 173 | Largest Upgrade in Growth (G7) | 🇺🇸 United States | +0.7 pp |
| 174 | Highest Policy Rate (Major LAC) | 🇧🇷 Brazil | ~15.0% |
| 175 | Highest Growth (Non-China EAP) | 🇵🇭 Philippines | 5.9% |
| 176 | Highest Commodity Export Dependency | 🇮🇶 Iraq | 95% (Oil-based) |
| 177 | Highest Expected Beverage Price Drop | ☕ Coffee/Cocoa | -7.5% |
| 178 | Highest Renewable Energy Share (Global) | 🇳🇴 Norway | 98% |
| 179 | Largest Net Exporter of AI Capital | 🇺🇸 United States | Ranked #1 |
| 180 | Global Headline Inflation (End-year) | 🌍 Global Median | 2.6% |
| # | Indicator Name | Leading Country/Economy | Score (2026 Forecast) |
| 181 | Highest Growth (Central Africa) | 🇨🇲 Cameroon | 4.2% |
| 182 | Highest Growth (Middle East Oil Exporters) | 🇰🇼 Kuwait | 4.8% |
| 183 | Highest Growth (Fragile Sahel Region) | 🇲🇱 Mali | 4.8% |
| 184 | Largest Working-Age Pop. Growth (2026-35) | 🌍 Sub-Saharan Africa | 1.2 Billion (Total Entry) |
| 185 | Highest Growth (Low-Income EAP) | 🇹🇱 Timor-Leste | 4.1% |
| 186 | Highest Growth (Caucasus & Central Asia) | 🇬🇪 Georgia | 5.0% |
| 187 | Largest Projected Global Oil Excess Supply | 🌍 Global Market | Substantial Surplus |
| 188 | Highest Agricultural Growth (West Africa) | 🇳🇪 Niger | Significant Recovery |
| 189 | Highest Growth (Developing Europe) | 🇷🇴 Romania | 3.3% |
| 190 | Highest Expected Rice Price Stability | 🌍 Global Market | Converging to Trend |
| 191 | Largest Share of Global FDI Inflows | 🇺🇸 United States | ~25% of Total |
| 192 | Highest Infrastructure Investment (SAR) | 🇮🇳 India | ~33% of GDP |
| 193 | Highest Rate of Deflation (2025-26) | 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone | Significant Disinflation |
| 194 | Highest Per Capita Income (vs. 2019) | 🌍 Advanced Economies | ~10% Higher |
| 195 | Lowest Per Capita Income (vs. 2019) | 🌍 LICs/Fragile States | Still Below 2019 |
| 196 | Highest Growth (Small Island States) | 🇲🇻 Maldives | 5.2% |
| 197 | Highest Expected Metal Price Resilience | 🌍 Copper/Lithium | Green Energy Demand |
| 198 | Largest Share of Global Manufacturing | 🇨🇳 China | ~30% of Total |
| 199 | Global Potential Growth (Trend) | 🌍 Global Average | 2.2% (Historical Low) |
| 200 | World Real GDP Growth (Baseline) | 🌍 Global Average | 2.6% |
Architects of the Outlook: Organizations Involved in GEP 2026
The World Bank Global Economic Prospects (GEP) is not just a document but a massive collaborative effort involving thousands of experts. As a World Bank Group Flagship Report, its production involves a sophisticated network of internal departments and external partners to ensure the accuracy of its 200+ indicators.
Primary Producing Entities
The Prospects Group: This is the core "engine room" of the GEP. Based in Washington, D.C., this specialized unit of the World Bank's Development Economics (DEC) vice presidency leads the forecasting, analytical research, and global modeling.
World Bank Regional Teams: The report is grounded in "on-the-ground" reality through six regional units (e.g., East Asia and Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa). These teams conduct continuous dialogue with country authorities and local central banks to refine national growth targets.
Global Practices (GPs): Specialized sector experts—such as the Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment (MTI) Global Practice—provide deep-dive data on specific themes like fiscal rules, trade barriers, and debt sustainability.
The World Bank Group Institutions
While the report is a "World Bank" product, it draws on the distinct strengths of the five WBG organizations:
IBRD & IDA: Provide the primary macroeconomic data and sovereign debt analysis for middle-income and the poorest nations.
IFC (International Finance Corporation): Contributes insights into private sector investment trends and the "AI adoption gap" in emerging markets.
MIGA & ICSID: Offer perspective on political risk and foreign direct investment (FDI) volatility, which are critical for 2026's "policy uncertainty" theme.
External Collaborators and Data Partners
To ensure "global consistency," the Prospects Group syncs its findings with other major international financial institutions (IFIs):
International Monetary Fund (IMF): The World Bank and IMF maintain a "coordinated but independent" relationship. While the IMF focuses on short-term monetary stability (via its World Economic Outlook), the World Bank’s GEP focuses on long-term structural growth and poverty.
OECD and WTO: These organizations provide the underlying data for the 2026 trade volume forecasts and advanced economy productivity benchmarks.
Haver Analytics & Bloomberg: Private data providers that supply the high-frequency financial and commodity price data (e.g., Brent crude and metal indices) used in the GEP models.
The Forecast Lifecycle
The production of the January 2026 report began in mid-2025, following a rigorous three-step process:
Initial Conditioning: Setting assumptions for oil prices and G7 growth.
Macroeconometric Modeling: Running "Spillover" models to see how a US slowdown affects EMDEs.
Vetting & Review: Extensive "challenge sessions" where the Chief Economist (Indermit Gill) and the Board of Executive Directors review the findings to ensure they meet the Bank’s rigorous quality standards.
A Rhythm of Resilience: The GEP Regular Publication Schedule
The Global Economic Prospects (GEP) is a flagship report of the World Bank Group, issued on a semi-annual basis to provide timely, data-driven updates on the state of the world economy. By maintaining a consistent twice-yearly release cycle, the World Bank ensures that global leaders have a reliable benchmark for adjusting their fiscal and monetary policies.
The Two-Phase Publication Cycle
The report is released in January and June each year, with each edition serving a distinct strategic purpose:
The January Edition (The Full Outlook): This is the more comprehensive of the two reports. It provides a detailed examination of global economic developments and long-term prospects. Most importantly, it features in-depth thematic chapters that analyze specific, topical policy challenges—such as 2026’s focus on "Rebuilding Fiscal Space" and the "Job Creation Challenge" for youth.
The June Edition (The Mid-Year Update): This edition serves as a crucial mid-way check. It updates the growth forecasts based on the first five months of the year’s performance. While it contains shorter analytical pieces than the January report, it is the primary tool for identifying how "downside risks" (like the 2026 trade tensions) are actually materializing.
GEP vs. Other Major Publications
To avoid market confusion, the World Bank coordinates its schedule with other international financial institutions.
| Publication | Frequency | Focus |
| Global Economic Prospects (GEP) | Semi-Annual (Jan/Jun) | Long-term structural growth, EMDEs, and poverty. |
| World Economic Outlook (WEO) | Quarterly (Full in Apr/Oct) | Short-term monetary stability and global financial risk (IMF). |
| Commodity Markets Outlook | Semi-Annual (Apr/Oct) | Detailed price forecasts for 46 key commodities (World Bank). |
Data Integrity and the "Cutoff" Principle
Every GEP publication adheres to a strict data cutoff date—usually about six to eight weeks before the formal release. For the January 2026 report, the data used was finalized in late 2025. This ensures that all 200 indicators are synchronized across regions, though it means the report captures "trends" rather than the daily fluctuations of the stock market.
Key takeaway: The January GEP sets the global "narrative" for the year, while the June update provides the "reality check" needed for mid-term budget corrections.
Understanding the World Bank’s Economic Compass: General GEP FAQ
The Global Economic Prospects (GEP) is the World Bank Group’s premier publication for monitoring the international economy. Below is a comprehensive "Ask and Answer" guide to understanding the purpose, frequency, and impact of this flagship report.
General FAQ: Global Economic Prospects (GEP)
Q: What is the primary objective of the GEP report? A: The GEP provides a semi-annual "health check" of the global economy. Its main goal is to deliver data-driven analysis of global economic developments, with a specialized focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). It serves as a critical tool for identifying risks and guiding poverty-reduction policies.
Q: Who is the target audience for this report? A: The report is designed for policymakers (to help shape national budgets), investors (to assess regional risks), academics, and international organizations involved in development and finance.
Q: How often is the GEP published? A: It is a semi-annual report, released twice a year:
January Edition: A comprehensive, full-length outlook that includes deep-dive thematic chapters on major global challenges.
June Edition: A mid-year "reality check" that updates growth forecasts and tracks how risks identified in January are materializing.
Q: How does the GEP differ from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO)? A: While both are essential, they have different focus areas:
The IMF (WEO): Focuses more on short-term monetary stability, exchange rates, and financial market risks.
The World Bank (GEP): Focuses on long-term structural growth, poverty reduction, and the specific hurdles facing developing nations.
The Mechanics of the Report
Q: Where does the data for the GEP come from? A: The data is compiled by the World Bank’s Prospects Group using a combination of internal macroeconometric models, data from regional teams on the ground in over 100 countries, and external sources like the WTO, OECD, and high-frequency financial trackers.
Q: What is a "Data Cutoff," and why does it matter? A: Every report has a fixed cutoff date (usually 4–6 weeks before publication). This means the 200+ indicators are synchronized to a specific moment in time to ensure the internal consistency of the global model, even if markets fluctuate the day before the report is released.
Q: What are "Downside Risks" in the GEP context? A: These are potential events that could make the actual economic outcome worse than the forecast. Common risks cited in the GEP include geopolitical tensions, sudden commodity price spikes, or higher-than-expected inflation that forces central banks to keep interest rates elevated.
Impact and Usage
Q: How do governments use the GEP? A: Many developing nations use GEP regional forecasts as a baseline for their Medium-Term Expenditure Frameworks (MTEF) and to negotiate terms for international financing and development aid.
Q: Can I access the raw data from the GEP? A: Yes. The World Bank typically releases the full dataset—including historical data and 3-year projections for every country—via the World Bank Open Data portal alongside the PDF report.
Glossary of Key Economic Terms: World Bank GEP
The following glossary defines the fundamental terms and analytical frameworks used within the Global Economic Prospects (GEP) reports. These terms are essential for interpreting the 200+ indicators that track global health and regional stability.
Table: Essential GEP Terminology
| Term | Abbreviation | Definition |
| Advanced Economies | AEs | High-income nations with mature financial markets and diversified industrial bases (e.g., USA, Euro Area, Japan). |
| Emerging Market & Developing Economies | EMDEs | A broad category of 150+ economies transitioning toward higher income levels and deeper global market integration. |
| Low-Income Countries | LICs | Nations with the lowest GNI per capita, often facing significant structural hurdles and high dependency on foreign aid. |
| Fragile & Conflict-affected Situations | FCS | Countries experiencing high institutional fragility or active conflict, which severely limits economic potential. |
| Real GDP Growth | GDP | An inflation-adjusted measure of the total value of goods and services produced by an economy in a specific year. |
| Potential Growth | — | The maximum rate of growth an economy can sustain over the long term without triggering excessive inflation. |
| Fiscal Space | — | The budgetary room a government has to spend or borrow without jeopardizing its financial sustainability. |
| Output Gap | — | The difference between an economy’s actual output and its maximum potential output; a negative gap suggests underutilization of resources. |
| Front-loading | — | The acceleration of trade, purchasing, or production (stockpiling) in anticipation of future shocks or policy changes. |
| Current Account Balance | CAB | The net flow of goods, services, and primary/secondary income between a country and the rest of the world. |
| Sovereign Debt Distress | — | A situation where a country is unable to fulfill its financial obligations (debt repayments) to creditors. |
| Commodity Terms of Trade | — | The ratio of a country's export prices to its import prices; critical for nations dependent on oil or minerals. |
Disclaimer: The indicators based on projections and modeled data from the World Bank Global Economic Prospects (GEP) 2026; actual economic outcomes may vary significantly due to unforeseen geopolitical events, market volatility, or policy changes.