Global Trade Outlook 2026: Interpreting the WTO Barometer
The world merchandise trade is entering a period of deliberate moderation. After a robust first half of 2025, current signals suggest a significant shift as we approach 2026.
The AI Multiplier Effect
A staggering 43% of global trade growth in the first half of 2025 was driven by AI-related goods. This includes semiconductors, specialized servers, and telecommunications hardware. While traditional sectors like fashion and apparel are struggling with high tariffs, the tech cycle remains the "engine room" of the current barometer reading of 101.8.
Regional Dynamics: Asia and Africa Lead
As we transition into 2026, export growth is expected to diverge. Asia and Africa are projected to be the fastest-growing regions, while North America faces a decline in exports due to the cooling effect of the 2025 "front-loading" rush. South-South trade—commerce between emerging economies—grew by 8% year-on-year, proving to be a vital stabilizer for the multilateral system.
2026 Strategic Conclusion
Growth is stabilizing at 0.5% as global inventories rebalance. Success in 2026 requires businesses to leverage AI for supply chain intelligence and pivot toward emerging market corridors.
