Legatum Safety & Security Index
The Legatum Safety & Security Index is a specialized pillar of the Legatum Prosperity Index that evaluates the extent to which war, conflict, terror, and crime destabilize the security of individuals in 167 countries. By analyzing factors ranging from national security to personal safety, the index serves as a foundational metric for understanding a nation's ability to foster a stable environment where citizens can flourish.
What is the Legatum Safety & Security Index?
The Legatum Safety & Security Index measures a country’s performance based on the degree to which institutional and social safety are maintained. It assesses the impact of political terror, civil conflict, and violent crime on a population, serving as one of the twelve pillars that determine a nation’s overall prosperity score.
Key Components of the Index
The index is not a single data point but a composite of several "elements" and hundreds of indicators. These are generally grouped into two primary areas:
National Security: This includes the presence of civil war, ethnic or religious conflict, and the impact of terrorism. It measures how often a state is destabilized by large-scale violence.
Personal Safety: This focuses on the everyday experience of citizens, including rates of homicide, theft, and assault, as well as the public's perception of safety (e.g., feeling safe walking alone at night).
Why Security Matters for Prosperity
According to the Legatum Institute, safety and security act as the "foundation" of a successful nation. Without a secure environment, other pillars of prosperity—such as the Investment Environment or Education—cannot function effectively.
Recent Global Trends
Stability Peaks: Historically, nations like Luxembourg, Switzerland, and Norway consistently rank at the top of the Safety & Security pillar.
The Decline of Security: In recent years, global reports have noted a plateau or decline in security across several regions, often driven by increased political terror and the long-term displacement of refugees.
The Resilience Factor: High-security scores are strongly correlated with a country's ability to recover from economic shocks or health crises.
Methodology and Data Sources
The Legatum Institute employs a rigorous "distance to frontier" methodology. This involves comparing a country’s performance against the best possible outcome (the "frontier") and the worst possible outcome to generate a normalized score.
| Component | Focus Area | Primary Data Sources |
| Institutional Safety | Political terror, state-sponsored violence, and refugees. | Political Terror Scale (PTS), Amnesty International, Center for Systemic Peace. |
| Social Safety | Civil conflict, ethnic/religious tensions, and war-related deaths. | Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), IISS Armed Conflict Database. |
| Personal Safety | Homicide rates, theft, assault, and public perception of safety. | UNODC (Crime Data), Gallup World Poll, World Health Organization (WHO). |
| Demographic Security | Displacement of people and internal security threats. | UNHCR (Refugee Data), Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). |
Top 5 Countries: Safety & Security Comparison
The following table consolidates the leading performers in the Safety & Security pillar of the Legatum Prosperity Index. These nations represent the global "frontier" for peace, with scores nearing the maximum possible value of 100.
Global Safety & Security Scorecard (Top 5)
| Rank | Country | Pillar Score | Key Performance Strength | Primary Regional Threat Level |
| 1 | Luxembourg | 96.3 | Institutional Safety: Virtually zero political terror or state-sponsored violence. | Minimal: High regional integration and small borders. |
| 2 | Switzerland | 95.7 | Conflict Neutrality: Permanent neutrality ensures zero involvement in external wars. | Low: Insulated by geography and political status. |
| 3 | Norway | 93.3 | Social Cohesion: Highest global levels of interpersonal trust and low violent crime. | Low: Strong Nordic cooperation and border stability. |
| 4 | Taiwan | 93.0 | Personal Safety: Extremely low homicide rates and high public perception of safety. | Moderate: High-tech infrastructure but sensitive geopolitical location. |
| 5 | Japan | 92.8 | Civil Order: Exceptional performance in "Property Crime" and "Violent Crime" categories. | Low: Highly effective social deterrents and strict law enforcement. |
Analysis of the Top Performers
European Dominance: Three of the top five countries are European, benefiting from long periods of political stability and established social safety nets.
The East Asian Surge: Taiwan and Japan outperform many Western nations due to cultural factors that prioritize collective safety and extremely efficient community policing.
Economic Correlation: All five countries are high-income economies, suggesting a strong "virtuous cycle" where wealth allows for better security infrastructure, which in turn fosters further economic growth.
Key Takeaway: While the top 5 countries are diverse in geography, they share a common trait: low "Political Terror" scores, meaning their governments rarely use violence or intimidation against their own citizens.
Institutional Safety: The Foundation of Security
Within the Legatum Safety & Security Index, Institutional Safety is the critical component that measures the relationship between the state and its citizens. It evaluates the degree to which a government protects—rather than threatens—the safety of its people.
While "Personal Safety" tracks everyday crime, Institutional Safety focuses on macro-level stability, measuring the impact of political violence, civil war, and state-sponsored terror.
The Three Pillars of Institutional Safety
Institutional Safety is broken down into three primary sub-elements that determine how secure a population is from state-level or organized threats.
Politically Related Terror and Violence
What it measures: The extent of state-sanctioned violence, including extrajudicial killings, torture, and political imprisonment.
Significance: This is a key indicator of human rights. Nations with high scores in this area (like Norway or Switzerland) have governments that strictly adhere to the rule of law.
War and Civil Conflict
What it measures: The presence of armed conflict within a country’s borders, including civil wars and ethnic or religious violence.
Significance: Large-scale conflict is the most significant barrier to national prosperity, as it destroys infrastructure and displaces millions of people.
Terrorism
What it measures: The frequency and impact of terrorist attacks, including fatalities and injuries.
Significance: Beyond the physical harm, terrorism destabilizes the "social fabric" of a country, causing long-term psychological and economic damage.
Key Indicators and Data Sources
The Legatum Institute aggregates data from several prestigious global monitoring organizations to ensure the accuracy of the Institutional Safety score.
| Focus Area | Key Indicators | Primary Data Sources |
| State Violence | Political terror scale, state-sponsored killings. | Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch. |
| Conflict Levels | Civil war deaths, intensity of internal conflict. | Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). |
| Terrorism Impact | Number of attacks, injuries, and property damage. | Global Terrorism Database (GTD). |
| Displacement | Number of refugees and internally displaced persons. | UNHCR, Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. |
Why Institutional Safety is the "Lead" Indicator
In the Legatum framework, Institutional Safety is considered a leading indicator. This means that a decline in Institutional Safety (such as a rise in political rhetoric or group grievances) often predicts a future decline in economic prosperity and personal freedom.
Social Safety: Stability Beyond Crime
In the Legatum Safety & Security Index, Social Safety measures the level of structural stability and the presence of social friction within a nation. While "Institutional Safety" focuses on the government and "Personal Safety" tracks crime, Social Safety looks at the underlying tensions—such as ethnic conflicts, group grievances, and demographic pressures—that can lead to social breakdown.
It acts as a barometer for how peacefully different groups coexist within a society and how resilient that society is to internal shocks.
The Core Elements of Social Safety
Social Safety is evaluated through indicators that capture both physical conflict and the psychological sense of security within communities.
1. Group Grievance
What it measures: The level of tension and division between different social groups based on ethnicity, religion, or political identity.
Why it matters: High group grievance is often a precursor to violence. Nations like Denmark and Finland score high here because of strong social integration and low levels of systemic discrimination.
2. Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)
What it measures: The scale of the population that has been forced to flee their homes due to insecurity.
Why it matters: A large displaced population is a sign of severe social instability and puts immense pressure on a nation’s resources and social order.
3. Demographic Pressures
What it measures: Strains on the population caused by rapid growth, environmental disasters, or disease that threaten to overwhelm social structures.
Why it matters: When a state cannot provide basic security for a rapidly changing population, the risk of social unrest increases significantly.
Social Safety Scorecard & Sources
The Legatum Institute pulls from global datasets that monitor social health and demographic stability to calculate this score.
| Focus Area | Key Indicators | Primary Data Sources |
| Social Cohesion | Level of group grievance and fractionalization. | Fund for Peace (Fragile States Index). |
| Displacement | Number of refugees and IDPs relative to population. | UNHCR, IDMC. |
| Civil Order | Incidence of civil unrest or mass protests. | ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data). |
| Human Flight | Rate of "brain drain" due to lack of safety. | World Bank, IOM. |
The Impact of Social Safety on Prosperity
Social Safety is often called the "invisible" layer of security. A country can have low crime rates (High Personal Safety) and no active wars (High Institutional Safety), but if Group Grievances are high, the nation is vulnerable to sudden volatility.
Key Trend: In the 2024–2025 reports, Social Safety has become a major differentiator in Western nations. Countries experiencing rising polarization often see their "Group Grievance" scores drop, even if their economic pillars remain strong.
Personal Safety: The Measure of Everyday Security
In the Legatum Safety & Security Index, the Personal Safety component shifts the focus from national-level threats (like war and terrorism) to the day-to-day experiences of individuals. It evaluates how safe citizens feel in their homes and on the streets, as well as the actual prevalence of crime within a society.
Personal Safety is considered a "quality of life" indicator because high crime rates and the fear of violence act as significant barriers to social engagement, economic activity, and overall well-being.
The Elements of Personal Safety
Personal Safety is divided into specific metrics that track both the objective reality of crime and the subjective perception of the population.
1. Violent Crime
What it measures: The frequency of physical violence against individuals, including homicide rates, assault, and kidnapping.
Significance: High levels of violent crime indicate a breakdown in the rule of law and community trust. Countries like Japan and Singapore consistently score near the top of this metric.
2. Property Crime
What it measures: The incidence of theft, burglary, and robbery.
Significance: While less physically damaging than violent crime, high property crime rates discourage investment and can lead to a general sense of unease and a lack of trust in local law enforcement.
3. Perception of Safety
What it measures: Public opinion on safety, specifically asking citizens: "Do you feel safe walking alone at night in the city or area where you live?"
Significance: Even if crime rates are statistically low, a high "fear of crime" can be just as detrimental to prosperity. This metric captures the confidence citizens have in their environment and their police force.
Personal Safety Scorecard & Indicators
The Legatum Institute utilizes a mix of official crime statistics and global survey data to build a holistic view of personal security.
| Focus Area | Key Indicators | Primary Data Sources |
| Homicide | Intentional homicide rate per 100,000 people. | UNODC (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime) |
| Physical Assault | Reported rates of assault and robbery. | World Bank / UNODC |
| Subjective Safety | Percent of people feeling safe walking alone at night. | Gallup World Poll |
| Trust in Police | Public confidence in the local police force. | Gallup World Poll |
The "Safety Gap" in 2026
Recent data highlights a growing "Safety Gap" between high-ranking and low-ranking nations. While countries in East Asia and Western Europe maintain stable or improving scores, several regions in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa face challenges where high violent crime rates directly suppress their overall Prosperity Index scores.
Demographic Security: The Resilience of Populations
In the Legatum Safety & Security Index, Demographic Security evaluates the vulnerability of a nation’s population to sudden shifts, displacement, and external pressures. While other components focus on state violence or street crime, Demographic Security looks at "human flight" and the destabilizing effects of large-scale migration and internal displacement.
It essentially measures how rooted and stable a population is, and whether the nation has the capacity to support its people without them being forced to leave.
Core Elements of Demographic Security
This component is built on metrics that track the movement and pressure points of a country's citizenry.
1. Human Flight and Brain Drain
What it measures: The economic and social impact of citizens (particularly highly skilled ones) leaving the country permanently due to a lack of opportunity or safety.
Why it matters: When a nation loses its "human capital," it loses the ability to innovate and govern effectively, creating a downward spiral of declining prosperity.
2. Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)
What it measures: The number of people forced to flee their homes but who remain within the country's borders, often due to localized violence or natural disasters.
Why it matters: Large IDP populations signal that the government cannot provide basic territorial security, leading to long-term social and economic strain.
3. Refugee Threats and Pressures
What it measures: The pressure placed on a country's infrastructure and social cohesion by the sudden influx of refugees from neighboring nations.
Why it matters: Even a stable country can see its security score drop if it lacks the institutional capacity to manage large-scale humanitarian arrivals without social friction.
Demographic Security Scorecard
The following table highlights how this component is tracked and the primary data sources used to quantify it.
| Indicator | Focus Area | Primary Data Sources |
| Human Flight | Professional emigration and loss of skilled labor. | Fund for Peace (Fragile States Index) |
| Internal Displacement | People displaced by conflict or environmental disaster. | Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) |
| Refugee Impact | Host country capacity and humanitarian pressure. | UNHCR (The UN Refugee Agency) |
| Demographic Pressure | Social strain from rapid population changes. | World Bank / US Census Bureau |
Why This Pillar is "The Canary in the Coal Mine"
Demographic Security is often a lagging indicator of institutional failure but a leading indicator of economic collapse. When "Human Flight" begins to spike, it is a clear signal that the population has lost faith in the country's future.
Behind the Index: Organizations and Data Architecture
The Legatum Safety & Security Index is not a standalone survey but a complex data synthesis. It is produced by a dedicated think-tank that collaborates with a global network of academic advisors and international institutions to ensure the metrics are both rigorous and transparent.
1. Primary Organization: The Prosperity Institute
The index is the flagship publication of the Legatum Institute, which as of 2025–2026 operates its index-related work under the name Prosperity Institute Limited.
Location: Based in London, UK.
Mission: To promote the pathways from poverty to prosperity by providing data-driven tools for policymakers.
Role: They are responsible for the final weighting, the "distance to frontier" calculations, and the annual publication of the rankings.
Funding: Part-funded by the private investment firm Legatum, alongside various international donors and educational charities.
2. Data Sources and Partners
The index aggregates over 300 indicators across its 12 pillars. For the Safety & Security pillar specifically, the data is pulled from authoritative sources that track conflict, crime, and human rights.
| Data Category | Primary Organizations & Sources |
| National Security & War | Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP): The global standard for tracking state-based and non-state conflicts. |
| State Terror & Violence | Political Terror Scale (PTS): Uses reports from Amnesty International and the U.S. State Department to quantify state-sponsored violence. |
| Terrorism Tracking | Global Terrorism Database (GTD): Managed by the University of Maryland to track the impact and frequency of attacks. |
| Crime Statistics | United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC): Provides official homicide and violent crime rates. |
| Public Perceptions | Gallup World Poll: Conducts tens of thousands of interviews globally to ask citizens if they "feel safe." |
| Demographic Stability | UNHCR & Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC): Tracks the movement of refugees and internally displaced persons. |
3. Methodology: How the Data is Processed
The organizations involved follow a four-stage process to ensure the final scores are accurate:
Indicator Selection: Experts from universities (such as Oxford and Harvard) assist in choosing the most relevant data points.
Normalization: Using the Distance to Frontier (DTF) method, all raw data (e.g., homicide rates vs. survey answers) are converted to a scale of 0 to 100.
Weighting: Not all data is equal. For example, "Civil War Deaths" are weighted more heavily than "Property Theft" because they have a more profound impact on a nation's prosperity.
Peer Review: The final rankings are reviewed by an advisory board of academics and researchers to verify the credibility of the findings.
Transparency Note: The Prosperity Institute maintains an open-source approach to its data. The full dataset and technical methodology are typically made available for public download, allowing independent researchers to audit the results.
