Understanding Global Trade Shifts: The IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) on Export Volumes
The global trade landscape is currently navigating a period of significant recalibration. As of early 2026, international markets are adjusting to the long-term effects of the 2025 "tariff shocks" and the normalization of trade routes. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), through its World Economic Outlook (WEO) reports, continues to provide the benchmark data for tracking the volume of exports of goods and services, offering a window into how nations are competing in this high-friction economic era.
What is the Volume of Exports of Goods and Services?
The volume of exports of goods and services is an economic metric that measures the quantity of a country’s total exports, adjusted for inflation to reflect real changes in trade activity. Unlike nominal value, which can be inflated by rising prices, export volume indicates the actual "physical" amount of goods and services flowing across borders. According to the IMF’s October 2025 and January 2026 updates, global trade volume growth is projected to slow to 2.6% in 2026, down from 4.1% in 2025, primarily due to the exhaustion of "front-loading" activities where companies accelerated shipments to avoid 2025 trade policy shifts.
Key Trends in the 2026 Export Landscape
The transition from 2025 to 2026 has marked a "double-squeeze" for many exporting nations. The IMF data highlights three critical shifts that are defining current export volumes:
The Technology Dependence: A significant portion of export growth in 2025–2026 is driven by the technology sector. In Asian economies (excluding China), tech-related products accounted for nearly 70% of export growth. Because tech products are often high-value but low-volume, this creates a "mirage" where trade values remain high even if physical shipping volumes are stagnant.
The Post-Front-Loading Slump: Much of the 4.1% trade growth seen in 2025 was "borrowed" from the future. Businesses moved inventory early to beat anticipated tariffs. Consequently, 2026 is seeing a "payback period" where export volumes are naturally dipping as warehouses remain overstocked.
Structural Tariff Reality: The global economy has settled into a higher cost-base. Average tariff rates in major corridors have stabilized at levels not seen in decades, forcing exporters to optimize volume through regional "near-shoring" rather than long-distance global shipping.
Projected Export Growth (2025–2026)
| Region / Entity | 2025 Growth (Est.) | 2026 Projection | Primary Driver |
| World | 4.1% | 2.6% | Policy Normalization |
| Advanced Economies | 3.2% | 2.1% | Service Sector Resilience |
| Emerging Markets | 4.8% | 3.5% | Tech & Green Energy |
| China | 5.0% | 4.2% | Manufacturing Dominance |
Why Export Volume Matters More Than Value
In 2026, the distinction between value and volume has never been more critical. While global trade value is projected to stay near record highs (approaching $34 trillion), the volume tells the real story of economic health:
Supply Chain Demand: Logistics and shipping companies rely on volume to fill containers. A value-driven market with low volume leads to excess shipping capacity and lower freight rates.
Labor Market Impact: High export volumes generally correlate with increased domestic manufacturing and employment, whereas value growth can often be attributed to simple price inflation.
Policy Effectiveness: Governments use IMF volume data to determine if their trade agreements are actually increasing the flow of goods or merely making existing trades more expensive.
Leading Exporters in the 2026 Global Economy
The 2026 trade landscape is characterized by a "value-over-volume" shift. While physical shipping volumes have slowed due to the normalization of trade routes, the total value of exports remains high, driven primarily by the high-tech sector, green energy components, and luxury goods.
According to the latest IMF World Economic Outlook (January 2026 Update) and supplementary trade data, the following nations lead the world in export performance.
Top 10 Exporting Countries (Goods & Services)
| Rank | Country | Flag | Primary Export Driver (2026) | Projected Export Value (Est. $B) |
| 1 | China | 🇨🇳 | Electronics, EVs, & Industrial Machinery | $3,850+ |
| 2 | United States | 🇺🇸 | Energy (Petroleum), Tech Services, & Aerospace | $3,300+ |
| 3 | Germany | 🇩🇪 | Automotive, Machinery, & Chemicals | $2,050+ |
| 4 | France | 🇫🇷 | Luxury Goods, Aeronautics, & Pharmaceuticals | $1,250+ |
| 5 | United Kingdom | 🇬🇧 | Financial Services, Business Services, & Gold | $1,150+ |
| 6 | Netherlands | 🇳🇱 | Refined Petroleum & Agricultural Tech | $1,080+ |
| 7 | Singapore | 🇸🇬 | Integrated Circuits & Financial Services | $1,010+ |
| 8 | Japan | 🇯🇵 | Precision Equipment, Cars, & Robotics | $950+ |
| 9 | South Korea | 🇰🇷 | Semiconductors & Green Technology | $860+ |
| 10 | India | 🇮🇳 | Software Services, Refined Petroleum, & Pharma | $850+ |
Key Regional Highlights for 2026
China's Pivot: China remains the undisputed leader, though its growth has slowed to 4.2%. It is successfully shifting its export basket from low-complexity goods to high-value technology like electric vehicles and batteries.
The US Energy Surge: The United States continues to leverage its position as a major energy exporter (Petroleum and LNG) and a global leader in high-value services, which currently account for over 30% of its total export value.
India's Ascent: India is one of the fastest-growing major exporters, increasingly integrated into global supply chains for electronics and semiconductor assembly, while maintaining its dominance in global IT services.
The Eurozone Struggle: While France has seen a boost in aeronautics and luxury, Germany’s export volume remains under pressure due to high energy costs and structural shifts in the global automotive market.
Export Volume vs. Export Value
As the IMF notes, 2026 is a "payback period" for shipping volumes. Many companies "front-loaded" their shipments in 2025 to avoid new tariffs. Consequently, while the value in the table above is high (due to inflation and high-tech prices), the actual number of containers (volume) is growing more slowly at approximately 2.6%.
China: Global Export Leadership and 2026 Projections
China remains the primary driver of international trade volumes as of early 2026. Following a record-breaking 2025, where goods exports reached $3.77 trillion, the nation has successfully navigated heightened trade barriers through a combination of industrial pivoting and a year-long "trade truce" with the United States.
According to the IMF January 2026 World Economic Outlook, China’s GDP growth forecast has been upgraded to 4.5%, largely supported by resilient export performance and proactive domestic stimulus.
China Export Profile: 2026 Data
| Metric | 2026 Projection / 2025 Actual | Analysis & Drivers |
| Total Goods Exports | $3.85 Trillion (Est.) | Reached record $3.77T in 2025; growth continuing at moderated pace. |
| Real GDP Growth | 4.5% | Upgraded from 4.2% due to eased trade tensions and tech surge. |
| Export Volume Growth | 4.2% | Slower than 2025 (8%) as "front-loading" activity normalizes. |
| Trade Surplus | ~$800 Billion | Massive goods surplus partially offset by services deficit. |
| Top Sector | Mechanical & Electrical | Now accounts for 52.5% of all Chinese export volume. |
High-Momentum Export Categories
China's export basket has undergone a structural transformation. In 2026, the focus has shifted from low-cost consumer goods to capital-intensive "New Three" technologies:
Electric Vehicles (EVs): Maintaining a compound annual growth rate of nearly 60%, Chinese EVs are dominating markets in ASEAN, Latin America, and parts of Europe.
Lithium-ion Batteries: Now the 7th largest export category ($67B+), these serve as essential industrial inputs for the global green transition.
Integrated Circuits: Digital monolithic circuits and semiconductors saw a 27% value increase, driven by global AI infrastructure demand.
Strategic Trade Partners (2026)
| Partner | Trade Share | 2026 Trend |
| ASEAN | ~16% | Rising: Major hub for "re-exporting" to Western markets. |
| European Union | ~14% | Stable: Faced with new regulatory hurdles on EV subsidies. |
| United States | ~13% | Recovering: Stabilized by the November 2025 trade truce. |
| Emerging Markets | ~30%+ | Strong: High demand for Chinese infrastructure and machinery. |
Resilience and "Near-Shoring"
The IMF highlights that China's trade resilience in 2026 is bolstered by "supply chain agility." To bypass direct tariffs, Chinese firms have increased the export of intermediate goods to countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Mexico. These components are then assembled and re-exported, ensuring that Chinese-origin technology remains embedded in the global economy despite localized trade restrictions.
United States: Service Excellence and Energy Dominance (2026)
The United States enters 2026 as a highly resilient exporting power, balancing a world-leading services sector with its status as a premier energy provider. According to the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook, the U.S. economy has shown remarkable adaptability, with export growth accelerating to 4.3% in late 2025 and holding steady into 2026.
This growth is largely credited to a surge in technology investment and a strategic "trade truce" that stabilized global supply chains.
U.S. Export Profile: 2026 Projections
| Category | Data / Metric | Primary Drivers |
| Total Export Value | ~$3.10 Trillion | Record energy output and high-tech service demand. |
| Real GDP Growth | 2.4% | Accelerated by tech investment and resilient exports. |
| Services Surplus | ~$30.1 Billion | Driven by travel, finance, and IP licensing. |
| Major Export Sector | Energy & Industrial | Oil, Gas, and refined petroleum products. |
| Primary Trading Partner | Canada | Over $310B in year-to-date goods exports. |
The "Dual-Engine" Export Strategy
The U.S. export economy is unique for its "dual-engine" structure, where it leads in both raw natural resources and high-complexity digital services.
Energy Sovereignty: The U.S. remains the world’s top exporter of refined petroleum and LNG. High volatility in global energy markets has kept demand for American drilling and extraction high, contributing over $177B to the 2026 trade balance.
Technological Services: Unlike manufacturing-heavy economies, the U.S. dominates in "digitally deliverable" services. AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and software licensing now account for a significant portion of the $106B+ in monthly services exports.
Aerospace & Defense: Renewed global demand for fleet modernization and defense security has pushed aircraft and parts exports to projected levels of $156B.
Top 5 Trading Partners (2026 Year-to-Date)
| Rank | Partner | Exports (Est. $B) | Key Commodities |
| 1 | Canada | $310.0 | Vehicles, Machinery, Energy |
| 2 | Mexico | $309.8 | Electronic parts, Petroleum, Corn |
| 3 | China | $97.9 | Soybeans, Semiconductors, Gold |
| 4 | United Kingdom | $88.1 | Financial Services, Aerospace |
| 5 | Netherlands | $87.2 | Pharmaceuticals, Crude Oil |
Strategic Outlook: The "AI Tailwinds"
The IMF notes that while trade policy headwinds persist, the U.S. is benefiting from massive "tailwinds" in AI-related investment. The domestic chip manufacturing capacity is expected to increase significantly through 2026, shifting the U.S. from a semiconductor consumer back toward a major supplier of specialized hardware. This transition is expected to further narrow the trade deficit in the coming years.
Germany: Navigating Industrial Transition in 2026
As of early 2026, Germany remains the industrial backbone of Europe and the world's third-largest exporter of goods. However, the German export model is currently undergoing a "stabilization phase" after several years of stagnation. According to the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook, Germany is beginning a modest recovery with a projected GDP growth of 1.1%, following a period where high energy costs and shifting global competition weighed heavily on its manufacturing core.
While 2025 was marked by "front-loading" (exporters rushing shipments to the U.S. ahead of tariff changes), 2026 is focused on structural adaptation and a pivot toward high-tech and green industrial machinery.
Germany Export Profile: 2026 Outlook
| Category | Data / Metric | Context for 2026 |
| Total Export Value (2025 Actual) | ~$1.65 Trillion | Remained stable despite global headwinds. |
| Export Volume Growth (2026 Proj.) | 0.8% | A return to positive territory after 2024–25 contractions. |
| Trade Balance (Surplus) | ~$190 Billion | Narrowing as domestic demand for tech imports rises. |
| Real GDP Growth | 1.1% | Up from 0.2% in 2025; driven by a rebound in foreign orders. |
| Leading Sector | Motor Vehicles & Parts | High-end ICE and luxury EVs lead the recovery. |
Primary Export Drivers and Challenges
German engineering continues to command a premium on the global stage, though the composition of its exports is shifting:
Automotive Dominance: Accounting for roughly 17% of total exports, the sector is recovering in 2026 as supply chain bottlenecks for specialized semiconductors have largely vanished.
Machinery & Equipment: German "Mittelstand" (SME) companies are seeing a surge in demand for industrial automation and green energy components as the global "Energiewende" (energy transition) accelerates.
Chemicals & Pharma: Germany remains a top global supplier of specialized medicines and industrial chemicals, providing a stable "floor" for export values when the automotive sector fluctuates.
Top 5 Trading Partners (2026 Statistics)
| Rank | Partner | Key Exports | Trend |
| 1 | United States | Vehicles, Machinery, Pharma | Largest market by value; stabilized by 2025 trade agreements. |
| 2 | France | Aircraft parts, Industrial goods | Strong integration within the EU single market. |
| 3 | Netherlands | Refined oil, Logistics tech | Key hub for re-exporting German goods globally. |
| 4 | China | Advanced machinery, Precision tools | Complex relationship; exports are shifting to high-end "smart" manufacturing. |
| 5 | Poland | Automotive parts, Intermediate goods | Growing importance as a manufacturing and supply chain partner. |
The "Mid-Tech" Pivot
The IMF notes that Germany’s greatest challenge in 2026 is its heavy concentration in "mid-tech" sectors (traditional mechanical engineering). To maintain its global standing, Germany is aggressively investing in AI-integrated manufacturing and hydrogen technology. The 2026 forecast suggests that while the "volume" of heavy machinery may grow slowly, the value of these exports—now embedded with sophisticated software—is expected to rise significantly through 2027.
France: Luxury, Aerospace, and Resilience in 2026
France enters 2026 as a stabilizing force within the Eurozone. While global trade volumes have normalized after the volatility of 2025, France has maintained its position as a top-tier exporter by leaning into its "high-value" specialties: aerospace, luxury goods, and pharmaceuticals.
According to the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook Update, France’s real GDP is projected to grow by 1.0%, a slight improvement from 2025. Export growth remains a key contributor, with net exports expected to add approximately 0.4 percentage points to the national growth rate this year.
France Export Profile: 2026 Projections
| Category | Data / Metric | 2026 Context & Drivers |
| Total Goods Exports | ~$650 Billion | Recovery in aircraft deliveries and luxury demand. |
| Real GDP Growth | 1.0% | Upgraded slightly from late 2025 estimates. |
| Export Volume Growth | 1.7% | Moderate recovery as global supply chains stabilize. |
| Services Surplus | ~$40 Billion | Strong performance in tourism and digital services. |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.5% | Labor market remains resilient despite fiscal shifts. |
Core Export Pillars for 2026
France’s export strategy is increasingly focused on "quality over quantity," a shift that has protected its trade balance from the volume slumps seen in more commodity-heavy economies.
Aerospace & Defense: France's largest export sector is seeing a major "ramp-up" in 2026. After supply chain delays in previous years, Airbus and Safran are meeting higher delivery targets for wide-body aircraft and military hardware.
Luxury & Fashion: The "LVMH effect" continues to dominate. High-end leather goods, perfumes, and fashion remain inelastic to global inflation, with the U.S. and the Middle East serving as primary growth drivers in 2026.
Agri-Food & Beverages: While volume growth in basic cereals is flat, high-value exports like Wine and Spirits (valued at over $16B) and Dairy products have rebounded, particularly in the North American and Japanese markets.
Pharmaceuticals: Led by Sanofi, French medicaments and biotechnological products account for over 4% of total export value, benefiting from increased global healthcare spending.
Top 5 Trading Partners (2026 Outlook)
| Rank | Partner | Primary Trade Goods | Trend |
| 1 | Germany | Vehicles, Industrial Parts | Deep integration; Germany remains the #1 destination. |
| 2 | Italy | Fashion, Chemicals, Food | Strong growth in regional luxury supply chains. |
| 3 | United States | Aerospace, Wine, Luxury | Expanding market; U.S. demand for French quality is rising. |
| 4 | Belgium | Pharmaceuticals, Energy | Key logistics hub for French goods entering the EU. |
| 5 | Spain | Automotive parts, Dairy | Strategic partner in the aerospace and auto sectors. |
Strategic Outlook: The "Value Pivot"
The IMF notes that France's trade deficit is narrowing as the nation moves toward a "Green Re-industrialization" strategy. By 2026, French exports are benefiting from the "Decarbonization Plan," which has increased the global competitiveness of French-made low-carbon technology and nuclear energy equipment. While the trade gap remains, the high surplus in Services (Tourism and IP) continues to act as a vital cushion for the French economy.
United Kingdom: A Services-Led Export Economy in 2026
The United Kingdom enters 2026 as a premier global hub for high-value services, effectively decoupling its growth from the physical volume fluctuations that have impacted manufacturing-heavy neighbors. Current economic data suggests the UK is successfully navigating a more fragmented global trade landscape by pivoting toward "digitally deliverable" services and high-complexity manufacturing.
While the "front-loading" of goods in early 2025 created a temporary spike in trade volumes, 2026 reflects a more sustainable trend where digital and financial services provide the primary momentum for the British economy.
UK Export Profile: 2026 Projections
| Category | Data / Metric (Est.) | 2026 Market Context |
| Total Export Value | ~£930 Billion | Continued growth driven by the services sector. |
| Real GDP Growth | 1.2% | Stabilizing after 1.3% growth in 2025. |
| Services Share | ~58% | Services continue to outperform goods in total value. |
| Export Volume Growth | 3.3% | Projected growth as manufacturing recovers in early 2026. |
| Inflation (CPI) | 2.2% | Easing toward the 2% target by the end of the year. |
The "Services Superpower" Dynamics
The UK's export strength in 2026 is anchored by its dominance in "invisible trade." Unlike goods, these high-margin exports are less susceptible to port delays or physical shipping costs.
Professional & Business Services: This remains the largest export category, valued at approximately £194 billion. It includes legal, accounting, and management consultancy services that are in high demand globally.
Financial Services: London remains the top global net exporter of financial services, contributing over £103 billion to the trade balance.
In 2026, the sector is benefiting from a lead in FinTech and Green Finance. Technology & AI: Exports of AI-driven enterprise software and data services are seeing significant growth. The UK currently produces a high volume of tech-related IP, with digital services exports rising as global AI infrastructure expands.
Aerospace & Defense: While total goods volume is growing more slowly than services, high-complexity sectors like Aerospace are seeing a "ramp-up." Exports of aircraft engines and parts are projected to reach £41.7 billion in 2026 due to a global surge in fleet renewals.
Top 5 Export Markets for the UK (2026)
| Rank | Partner | Primary Export Drivers | 2026 Trend |
| 1 | United States | Financial Services, Aerospace, Pharma | Strong: Accounts for over 22% of all UK exports. |
| 2 | Germany | Power Generators, Autos, Tech | Stable: Key partner for integrated supply chains. |
| 3 | Ireland | Services, Energy, Food & Beverages | Rising: Deep service integration and proximity. |
| 4 | Netherlands | Refined Oil, Chemicals, Logistics | Steady: Vital gateway for goods entering the EU. |
| 5 | China | Mechanical Machinery, Cars, Pharma | Complex: Rebounding in early 2026 after a 2025 slump. |
Strategic Resilience: The Indo-Pacific and Trade Deals
Current analysis highlights that the UK is successfully diversifying its trade away from a pure Euro-centric model. By 2026, the UK's participation in major regional trade blocs and the implementation of the UK-India Free Trade Agreement have begun to pay dividends. Export volumes to Southeast Asia and India are showing higher growth rates than traditional markets, helping the UK maintain its position as a top global exporter.
Flagship Export Projects and Industrial Best Practices (2026)
In 2026, the leading global exporters are no longer competing solely on volume; they are focusing on strategic infrastructure and technology-led projects that secure long-term market dominance. These "best practice" projects serve as blueprints for how nations are navigating the transition to green energy, digital services, and resilient supply chains.
Leading Export Projects by Country (2026)
| Country | Flag | Best Practice / Flagship Project | Sector | 2026 Impact / Status |
| China | 🇨🇳 | The "New Three" Corridor | Green Tech | Scaling EV, Battery, and Solar exports to $100B+ via the Greater Bay Area. |
| United States | 🇺🇸 | Louisiana Blue Hydrogen Hub | Energy | Achieving Final Investment Decisions (FID) on massive 0.3mtpa low-carbon plants. |
| Germany | 🇩🇪 | Industry 4.0 Green Machine Export | Industrial | Transitioning from traditional tools to AI-integrated, hydrogen-ready machinery. |
| France | 🇫🇷 | France-Japan REE Recycling | Critical Minerals | Opening Europe’s first large-scale Rare Earth Element refining facility for export. |
| United Kingdom | 🇬🇧 | Hydrogen Allocation Round 2 | Low-Carbon | Finalizing support for 10+ mega-scale hydrogen projects (e.g., Tees Green) for service export. |
Regional Project Highlights
China: The "New Three" and Greater Bay Area
China has refined its export "best practice" by concentrating high-tech manufacturing in specialized clusters. The Qianhai-Shenzhen zone is currently a global model for logistics efficiency, utilizing AI-driven customs and state-of-the-art kitting facilities to export Electric Vehicles (EVs) and advanced lithium batteries. By 2026, these sectors have become the primary growth engine, replacing traditional low-end manufacturing.
United States: Energy Export Infrastructure
The U.S. is leveraging the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) to pivot from traditional fossil fuels to "Blue Hydrogen." Major projects like the Donaldsonville Plant in Louisiana are setting the global standard for carbon capture and storage (CCS) integrated into energy production, allowing the U.S. to export high-demand "low-carbon" energy to Europe and Asia.
Germany & France: The European Industrial Pivot
Germany is prioritizing the export of decarbonization hardware. As the global "Energiewende" accelerates, German firms are exporting the electrolyzers and industrial automation needed for other nations to transition their power grids.
France has specialized in the circular economy. By partnering with Japan to create a Rare Earth Element (REE) recycling hub, France is positioning itself as a strategic supplier of the minerals needed for high-tech electronics and defense, aiming to meet 15% of certain global oxide demands by the end of 2026.
United Kingdom: Services and Low-Carbon Leadership
The UK's best practice lies in its regulatory and financial modeling. Through the "Hydrogen Allocation Round" mechanisms, the UK government provides a stable framework for private investment in low-carbon energy. Projects like Tees Green Hydrogen and Wallsend (Lhyfe) are now operational, proving the UK's ability to export both the physical energy and the technical consultancy services required to build such systems globally.
Key Takeaway for 2026
These projects highlight a shift toward resource security and environmental compliance. Nations that successfully integrate "Green" and "Digital" components into their export infrastructure are seeing significantly higher value growth compared to those relying on traditional raw commodity volumes.
Global Trade Reference: Volume of Exports (2026)
This reference guide provides a consolidated look at the terminology and common inquiries regarding the volume of exports in the 2026 economic landscape. As global trade shifts toward high-tech services and energy, understanding these metrics is essential for navigating modern markets.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
General Trade Questions
Q: What is the difference between Export Volume and Export Value? A: Export Volume refers to the physical quantity of goods and services (units, tons, hours of service). Export Value is the monetary worth (total revenue in USD). In 2026, many countries are seeing "Value" rise faster than "Volume" due to high-priced technology like AI chips.
Q: Why is global trade volume growth slowing in 2026? A: According to 2026 projections, growth is expected to moderate to 2.3%–2.6%. This is largely due to the "payback period" after the 2025 front-loading surge, where companies shipped goods early to avoid anticipated tariffs.
Q: How does the "Trade Truce" affect 2026 projections? A: The late-2025 truce between major powers (like the US and China) has stabilized volumes by pausing new export controls and tariffs. This has allowed for more predictable "just-in-time" manufacturing, specifically in the semiconductor and automotive sectors.
Country-Specific Inquiries
Q: Which country is the fastest-growing exporter in 2026? A: India is currently a global leader in growth rate, with export volumes projected to rise by over 6% as it integrates further into global electronics and software supply chains.
Q: How is Germany's export sector recovering in 2026? A: Germany is moving from stagnation to a modest 0.8%–1.1% growth. The recovery is led by a pivot toward exporting green industrial machinery and high-end EVs, compensating for higher domestic energy costs.
Glossary of Key Trade Terms (2026)
| Term | Definition | Context in 2026 |
| Front-Loading | Accelerating shipments to beat a future deadline (like a tariff). | Caused a "volume bubble" in 2025 and a dip in early 2026. |
| Intermediate Goods | Products used as inputs to produce a final good (e.g., microchips for cars). | Now account for 30–60% of global trade volumes. |
| Trade Value Index | A measure of the current dollar value of exports relative to a base year. | Often remains high in 2026 even if physical shipping volume is flat. |
| Services Surplus | When the value of exported services (finance, AI, tourism) exceeds imports. | A primary driver for the UK and USA economies in 2026. |
| Near-Shoring | Moving production closer to the final market to reduce shipping volume risks. | A key strategy used by Chinese firms in Mexico and Vietnam. |
| Unit Value Index (UVI) | An index used to track the price changes of traded goods over time. | Used by the IMF to calculate real volume from nominal value data. |
| The "New Three" | A term for China’s core 2026 exports: EVs, Lithium Batteries, and Solar. | These high-tech goods are replacing traditional textile/toy volumes. |
Summary of 2026 Export Metrics
| Metric | Global Average | Trend | Primary Influencer |
| Real GDP Growth | 3.3% | ↔️ Stable | AI-related investment & tech surge. |
| Trade Volume Growth | 2.6% | ↘️ Slowing | Normalization after 2025 supply chain shifts. |
| Headline Inflation | 3.8% | ↘️ Cooling | Improved supply of energy and food. |
| Digitally Delivered Services | 56% | ↗️ Rising | Rapid adoption of AI and cloud computing services. |